Keepwatch

Monte Carlo simulation of 10,000 season outcomes. Match probabilities sourced from bookmaker odds where available, and estimated from Elo ratings (derived from points-per-game) with home advantage adjustment for remaining fixtures. Each simulation randomly resolves all remaining matches using Poisson-distributed goal sampling, calculates final standings, and records finishing positions.

Sensitivity analysislocks each fixture to every possible result (home win / draw / away win) and re-runs 1,000 simulations per lock to measure the impact on the selected team's qualification odds.

What-If modelets you manually lock fixture outcomes and see how they affect the selected team's odds in real time. Lock any fixture - not just the selected team's - since a rival's loss can matter more than your team's win.

Scenarios stack multiple what-if assumptions (fixture locks and probability modifiers) to explore compound effects on qualification odds. Use the chat sidebar to describe scenarios in natural language.