Newcastle travel to Selhurst Park as marginal favourites, but the fixture is far from straightforward. Without Bruno Guimarães and operating a reshuffled midfield, as covered above, Howe's side faces a Palace outfit that is tactically coherent and physically uncomfortable to play against under Oliver Glasner.
Opportunities
Palace's full-back line is the structural weak point. Their widest position group averages just 72.8 — the lowest in their squad — and Boso Sosa at left-back represents the clearest defensive liability. Anthony Gordon's pace (rated 91) against Sosa is Newcastle's single most repeatable advantage in this game. If Howe overloads that channel early and forces Glasner to shift a central midfielder across to cover, it opens central lanes for Tonali and Joelinton to exploit on second-phase arrivals.
Eddie Nketiah's absence removes a pressing option for Palace. Glasner typically presses high with a front three; without Nketiah as a covering runner, the press becomes less coordinated from the right side. Newcastle's centre-backs and Tonali should find more time in possession than they would against a fully-stocked Palace front line — which matters for building into the final third without Guimarães carrying the ball.
Yeremy Pino and Adam Wharton are the creative hub. Wharton is a ball-playing pivot with a passing rating of 81 — industrious, but not someone who recovers quickly when the shape is broken. If Joelinton wins the press trigger and forces Palace into backward passes, Tonali can step onto the second ball before Wharton resets. Disrupting Palace's midfield rhythm cuts supply to Jean-Philippe Mateta.
Yvan Wissa's movement in behind is a direct threat to Palace's high defensive line. Matis Lacroix defends aggressively and plays on the front foot, but his pace (88) is deployed to hold a high line — a line that Wissa's acceleration can threaten on a diagonal run from the left channel. Palace conceded space behind the defensive line against Fiorentina in the Conference League quarter-final, and Newcastle's counter-attacking shape is designed to exploit exactly that.
Risks
Jean-Philippe Mateta is the central danger. The French striker is Palace's anchor in the final third: physical, sharp in the area, and capable of holding the ball long enough to bring teammates into play. His shooting (84) is legitimate, and Glasner will target him with early crosses from both full-back positions. With Newcastle's reshuffled backline, Schär and Botman will face a sustained aerial test.
Ismaïla Sarr and Eze Guessand provide Mateta's width. Sarr (pace: 91) is the pace threat on the right flank; Glasner will use him to pin Lewis Hall and prevent Hall from joining Newcastle's press. Guessand on the opposite side gives Palace a powerful alternative — he combines pace (83) with physicality (77) and will be tasked with stretching Newcastle's defensive shape to create gaps for Mateta centrally.
Palace's wide-midfield group is their strongest position (avg 79.5) — and Newcastle's left side, covering Gordon's defensive blind spot, will be exposed if Hall is drawn forward. Glasner's system demands constant crossing volume, and Selhurst Park's atmosphere amplifies that threat when Palace build momentum.
Set pieces are a structural risk. Palace carry significant aerial threat from dead balls through Mateta and the centre-back pairings. With Tonali and Joelinton likely occupying midfield duties rather than providing set-piece height in attack, Newcastle's zonal defence will need to be disciplined to prevent routine deliveries from becoming danger moments.
A. Wharton's injury status adds one complication. Pre-match reports from Palace's press conference flagged Wharton as a player with a fitness update — if he is fit, his ability to control tempo makes Palace more dangerous; if absent, Glasner's midfield loses its most progressive passer and Newcastle's press has an easier target.
The structural read is straightforward: Palace are better at home than their squad profile suggests, and Glasner's system is designed to maximise Selhurst Park's energy. Newcastle's best path to the +5.4pp probability swing that defines their perfect weekend is to attack the left flank hard, disrupt Wharton's distribution, and keep Mateta isolated from service.